Oil all gone in 30 years, what next?

[tooldtocare]

Below is what I have found. You can do the math. Sorry about the looooong post

Globally, crude's reserves-to-production ratio has hovered between 40-55 years. The 1P estimate is an estimate of proven reserves, what is likely to be extracted from a well, 90% probability. Probable reserves are given 50% certainty (2P) and possible reserves a 10% certainty (3P).

https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczq

 https://tinyurl.com/yd7cfczqv

 Overall, global supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day in August, .2017

https://tinyurl.com/yctnaj3f 

our forecast horizon we will be in a 104 mb/d market and the call on OPEC crude and stock change rises from 32.2 mb/d in 2016 to 35.8 mb/d in 2022. With the group forecast to add 1.95 mb/d to production capacity in this period, this implies that available spare production capacity will fall below 2 mb/d.

https://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/oil2017MRSsum.pdf 

Oil is a resource… it will run out

For decades now, the topic of when our oil will run out has been the focus of analysts and industry experts. The concern is real. Oil is a resource and will eventually be depleted. Once we discover and process all sources, there’s nothing else. It’s only a question of time.

 Oil still remains the largest source of primary energy worldwide. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the global supply of oil, bio-fuel and liquid hydrocarbons are still enough to meet the global demand for liquid fuels for another 25 years. The good news is that developing countries are now seriously exploring and using alternative and renewable energy. 

Here’s the latest report on Oil Consumption and Demand. 

1.    The world oil consumption per day is 91.7 million barrels as of May 2014. 

2.    The U.S. is the largest oil consumer in the world, using up 18.83 million barrels a day. 

3.    China uses 10% of the world’s oil. It is expected to overtake the U.S. as the largest oil consumer. 

4.    The global oil demand is expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels a day by late 2014. 

http://www.theworldcounts.com/stories/World-Oil-Consumption-per-Day

  North Sea is running too dry to meet target

 Wednesday July 4, 2007

 http://environment.guardian.co.uk/energy/story/0,,

2117952,00.html  

The real casus belli: peak oil

Tuesday June 26, 2007

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2

111529,00.html  

Science Panel Finds Fault With Estimates of Coal Supply

Published: June 21, 2007 http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/21/business/21coal.

html  

Chevron announces that they now have 11.8 years of oil left at current production levels after aquiring Unocal reserves

07/08/05  

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/11/business/worldbu

siness/11unocal.html?pagewanted=2&adxnnl=1&

adxnnlx=1123732924-48wR07Ekayb0gi0r7b8l9Q

 An Oil Enigma: Production Falls Even as Reserves Rise

Published: June 12, 2004

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/12/business/12RESE.

html?pagewanted=3&hp  

"The decline of oil and gas will affect the world population more than climate change"

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo

bal.warming/'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo

bal.warming/  

In January 2001, the U.S.

Department of Energy estimated the world's supply of unexploited oil reserves the world supply of oil will be totally exhausted 35 years from now (June 2003).

http://members.aol.com/mpwright9/oil.html  

World oil and gas 'running out'

Thursday, October 2, 2003 Posted: 1245 GMT ( 8:45 PM HKT)  

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo

bal.warming/'>http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/europe/10/02/glo

bal.warming/  

The Oil Crunch

Published: May 7, 2004

The question, instead, is when the trend in oil prices will turn decisively upward. That upward turn is inevitable as a growing world economy confronts a resource in limited supply. But when will it happen? Maybe it already has.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/07/opinion/07KRUG.h

tml

 Natural gas markets undergo turbulent transition as domestic production declines

 Tuesday, December 16, 2003

 http://www.statesman.com/business/content/auto/epa

per/editions/tuesday/business_f3edda2474a06071009b.

html

 "Texas' oil resource is pretty well picked over," http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp

ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html'>http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp

ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html

 Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show

 Published: April 8, 2004

 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/08/business/08OIL.h

tml?hp  

Half of Texas’s oil wells have dried up in the past 40 years and there are very few new ones.

 http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp

ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html'>http://www.statesman.com/specialreports/content/sp

ecialreports/energy/0617oil.html

 Tight Oil Supply Won't Ease Soon

 Published: May 16, 2004

 Two dollars for a gallon of gas? Get used to it. High fuel prices are here to stay, at least for the near future, because no relief is in sight for tight oil supplies.

 http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/16/business/16OIL.h

tml?pagewanted=2&hp&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=10

84724567-pWSKI+RB9bShA5oXGRQi4w

 The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

Edited April 1, 2018 by tooldtocare

[Jim_Alaska]

15 minutes ago, tooldtocare said:

Oil is a resource… it will run out

 The end of the Fossil Fuel era is upon us so what are we going to do next-?

You are right in saying that oil is a resource, but there is evidence that it may be a renewable resource. I have my doubts about oil running out in our lifetime. Alternative energy sources are not able to replace oil or hydro. Alternative energy sources can only supplement historical sources at this time.

[tooldtocare]

Oil comes from decaying plant/animal parts that settle to the bottom of the ocean. Over time this decaying matter transforms into “oil”. In a few thousand years the oil that we consumed will be replenished from the oil being produced on the ocean’s sea bed.

All we have to do is wait a few thousand years and then walla, the oil will return.

in my view

[tooldtocare]

China Aims to Spend at Least $360 Billion on Renewable Energy by 2020

China intends to spend more than $360 billion through 2020 on renewable power sources like solar and wind, the government’s energy agency said on Thursday.

The country’s National Energy Administration laid out a plan to dominate one of the world’s fastest-growing industries, just at a time when the United States is set to take the opposite tack as Donald J. Trump, a climate-change doubter, prepares to assume the presidency.

The agency said in a statement that China would create more than 13 million jobs in the renewable energy sector by 2020, curb the growth of greenhouse gasses that contribute to global warming and reduce the amount of soot that in recent days has blanketed Beijing and other Chinese cities in a noxious cloud of smog.

China surpassed the United States a decade ago as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses, and now discharges about twice as much. For years, its oil and coal industries prospered under powerful political patrons and the growth-above-anything mantra of the ruling Communist Party.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/05/world/asia/china-renewable-energy-investment.html

2017 China Electric Car Sales Blow World Out Of The Water — BAIC EC-Series Is A Superstar

The rise and rise of the Chinese plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market is unstoppable, with yet another record performance in December. A total of 102,000 new passenger PEVs were registered last month, up 130% year over year. Yes, that was just December, and it pulled the year-to-date count to over 600,000 units, up 71% compared to 2016.

As consequence of this rapid growth, in December, the PEV share hit a record 3.3% market share of the entire Chinese auto market, while the entire 2017 PEV market share ended at 2.1%. That’s firmly ahead of last year’s score (1.5%) and above the USA (1.2%) and Europe (~1.9%).

The Chinese PEV market represented roughly half of the 1.2 million plug-ins sold worldwide in 2017, while Chinese car makers made 47% of all PEVs sold last year.

https://tinyurl.com/ybe5rcb7

Our future at being the world’s great leader is coming to an end. Soon we, i.e. the us will fall into the category of a third world economy if we do not wake up soooon!

[Jim_Alaska]

My my, you are quite the doomsday prophet aren't you?

[Jim_Alaska]

If I am not mistaken a PEV has to recharge from an electrical source and that electrical source comes from???

Long ago Global Warming alarmists switched to calling it "Climate Change" because they could not prove their alarmist nonsense.

Back in the seventies there was the same alarmist nonsense regarding a coming ice age. Funny how these types are always wrong and consequently never heard from again when their pet theory doesn't come true.

[tooldtocare]

On 4/1/2018 at 12:40 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

If I am not mistaken a PEV has to recharge from an electrical source and that electrical source comes from???

Long ago Global Warming alarmists switched to calling it "Climate Change" because they could not prove their alarmist nonsense.

Back in the seventies there was the same alarmist nonsense regarding a coming ice age. Funny how these types are always wrong and consequently never heard from again when their pet theory doesn't come true.

Oil is "finite" and that is not a pet theory; it is a fact.

On 4/1/2018 at 12:40 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

If I am not mistaken a PEV has to recharge from an electrical source and that electrical source comes from???

Long ago Global Warming alarmists switched to calling it "Climate Change" because they could not prove their alarmist nonsense.

Back in the seventies there was the same alarmist nonsense regarding a coming ice age. Funny how these types are always wrong and consequently never heard from again when their pet theory doesn't come true.

Oil is "finite" and that is not a pet theory; it is a fact.

On 4/1/2018 at 12:40 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

If I am not mistaken a PEV has to recharge from an electrical source and that electrical source comes from???

Long ago Global Warming alarmists switched to calling it "Climate Change" because they could not prove their alarmist nonsense.

Back in the seventies there was the same alarmist nonsense regarding a coming ice age. Funny how these types are always wrong and consequently never heard from again when their pet theory doesn't come true.

Oil is "finite" and that is not a pet theory; it is a fact.

On 4/1/2018 at 12:40 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

If I am not mistaken a PEV has to recharge from an electrical source and that electrical source comes from???

Long ago Global Warming alarmists switched to calling it "Climate Change" because they could not prove their alarmist nonsense.

Back in the seventies there was the same alarmist nonsense regarding a coming ice age. Funny how these types are always wrong and consequently never heard from again when their pet theory doesn't come true.

Oil is "finite" and that is not a pet theory; it is a fact.

On 4/1/2018 at 12:40 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

If I am not mistaken a PEV has to recharge from an electrical source and that electrical source comes from???

Long ago Global Warming alarmists switched to calling it "Climate Change" because they could not prove their alarmist nonsense.

Back in the seventies there was the same alarmist nonsense regarding a coming ice age. Funny how these types are always wrong and consequently never heard from again when their pet theory doesn't come true.

Oil is "finite" and that is not a pet theory; it is a fact.

[DaveW]

On ‎1‎/‎04‎/‎2018 at 10:16 AM, tooldtocare said:

Overall, global supply fell by 720,000 barrels per day in August, .2017

Global supply is regulated by the Arab states largely (and others), and it is for purely financial reasons - they regulate the flow to keep the prices high.

Global supply rates have nothing to do with whether or not oil is running out, and everything to do with keeping the oil price high, so looking at last years "supply reduction" proves nothing in regard to oil reserves.

[tooldtocare]

19 minutes ago, DaveW said:

Global supply is regulated by the Arab states largely (and others), and it is for purely financial reasons - they regulate the flow to keep the prices high.

Global supply rates have nothing to do with whether or not oil is running out, and everything to do with keeping the oil price high, so looking at last years "supply reduction" proves nothing in regard to oil reserves.

I am not concerned about the price of a gallon of gasoline at this point in time; nor the available supply. We can continue to use as much oil as we chose for the next 30 or so years and then the supply and demand equation flips on its head. We have the time to make the transition if, and only if we see the writing on the wall and start now in developing the next sources of energy that we will need.

This will require a global initiative that has not begun yet; and it should.

19 minutes ago, DaveW said:

Global supply is regulated by the Arab states largely (and others), and it is for purely financial reasons - they regulate the flow to keep the prices high.

Global supply rates have nothing to do with whether or not oil is running out, and everything to do with keeping the oil price high, so looking at last years "supply reduction" proves nothing in regard to oil reserves.

I am not concerned about the price of a gallon of gasoline at this point in time; nor the available supply. We can continue to use as much oil as we chose for the next 30 or so years and then the supply and demand equation flips on its head. We have the time to make the transition if, and only if we see the writing on the wall and start now in developing the next sources of energy that we will need.

This will require a global initiative that has not begun yet; and it should.

19 minutes ago, DaveW said:

Global supply is regulated by the Arab states largely (and others), and it is for purely financial reasons - they regulate the flow to keep the prices high.

Global supply rates have nothing to do with whether or not oil is running out, and everything to do with keeping the oil price high, so looking at last years "supply reduction" proves nothing in regard to oil reserves.

I am not concerned about the price of a gallon of gasoline at this point in time; nor the available supply. We can continue to use as much oil as we chose for the next 30 or so years and then the supply and demand equation flips on its head. We have the time to make the transition if, and only if we see the writing on the wall and start now in developing the next sources of energy that we will need.

This will require a global initiative that has not begun yet; and it should.

19 minutes ago, DaveW said:

Global supply is regulated by the Arab states largely (and others), and it is for purely financial reasons - they regulate the flow to keep the prices high.

Global supply rates have nothing to do with whether or not oil is running out, and everything to do with keeping the oil price high, so looking at last years "supply reduction" proves nothing in regard to oil reserves.

I am not concerned about the price of a gallon of gasoline at this point in time; nor the available supply. We can continue to use as much oil as we chose for the next 30 or so years and then the supply and demand equation flips on its head. We have the time to make the transition if, and only if we see the writing on the wall and start now in developing the next sources of energy that we will need.

This will require a global initiative that has not begun yet; and it should.

[tooldtocare]

On 4/1/2018 at 12:23 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

My my, you are quite the doomsday prophet aren't you?

If we do nothing then it would be a doomsday thing but if we wake up and start the transition away from oil everything will be just fine.

 

in my point of view

[Jim_Alaska]

tooldtocare,

Posting the same thing over and over again is SPAMMING. We have rules here against SPAMMING. Saying it once is quite enough. Since you are new here I will refrain from giving you a warning, but in return I ask that you please read our board rules here.

[swathdiver]

God is in control.  During the Cold War, the Soviets were forced to drill deep, very deep, miles and miles deep for oil.  It is my belief that those organics in the oil are picked up as it travels through the earth.  I reckon it's probably made deep inside the earth.

Doomsday?  Haven't you read the bible fella?  We can do nothing to this planet to harm it; but just you wait til when the last chapter of that old black book begins...

[HappyChristian]

Did you know that natural gas can be created by adding heat and water to brown coal...and coal doesn't take a thousand years to form.  

 

[tooldtocare]

On 4/3/2018 at 1:07 AM, Jim_Alaska said:

tooldtocare,

Posting the same thing over and over again is SPAMMING. We have rules here against SPAMMING. Saying it once is quite enough. Since you are new here I will refrain from giving you a warning, but in return I ask that you please read our board rules here.

I did not intentionally mean to post something over and over. 

When i pressed [submit] nothing happened so I pressed the [submit] button again, and again, it still it did not submit. I then left the site, came back and saw the multiple posts.

Sorry,

please forgive me

[Jim_Alaska]

You are certainly forgiven tooldtocare. As a matter of fact I should have considered that situation before posting as I did. It has happened to me a few times also.

Please forgive me for posting in a manner that could be seen as overly harsh, especially given the circumstances.