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National Polls Verses What You Or I See

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All the talk about Obama being ahead in polls in Ohio must be polls from the cities. Here in rural South East Ohio I'm seeing very little evidence of any support for Obama. However we are negatively impacted by his war on coal, the resulting close of power plants, and loss of jobs. I would guess that is why no visits here from the Obama-Biden camp.

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Most polls are seriously flawed, if not outright made to say what someone wants them to say. Taking polls and reporting on them as if they are news is the lazy approach and manipulative approach. Even going back to the polls in the 1980 election they were way off. The polls predicted a close election with Carter winning but Reagan won by a large margin.

In most States the cities tend to be far more liberal than the rural areas. The election will likely be determined by which way the independents go and which side can get their base to bother to come out and vote. This is why Obama is putting so much money, time and effort into reaching out to blacks and hispanics which he already knows will mostly vote for him. He needs a huge turnout from these groups, not just a moderate turnout. This is also why he's appealing so heavily to women, he needs them out in huge numbers.

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All the talk about Obama being ahead in polls in Ohio must be polls from the cities. Here in rural South East Ohio I'm seeing very little evidence of any support for Obama. However we are negatively impacted by his war on coal, the resulting close of power plants, and loss of jobs. I would guess that is why no visits here from the Obama-Biden camp.


This is how it is in most states. This is why getting rid of the electoral college and going strictly by a majority vote like many people wanted after Gore lost to Bush is not a good idea. You would end up with a handful of the largest cities in America running the whole nation. I know New York State is more conservative than liberal yet because of New York City it always goes liberal. The same goes for Pennsylvania. Pittsburg and Philadelphia run the whole state politically.

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This is how it is in most states. This is why getting rid of the electoral college and going strictly by a majority vote like many people wanted after Gore lost to Bush is not a good idea. You would end up with a handful of the largest cities in America running the whole nation. I know New York State is more conservative than liberal yet because of New York City it always goes liberal. The same goes for Pennsylvania. Pittsburg and Philadelphia run the whole state politically.

Even with the electoral college we are nearing the point where the few large population states are dominating. This is one of the reasons why Obama has an edge and Romney will have to work very hard to take Florida, Virginia and Ohio. Romney needs all three while if Obama takes one of them he will likely win.

New York City determines the where New York states electoral votes go, as does Chicago and Illinois and the major cities and several other states. Since cities tend to vote Dem this is making the Repubs work harder and especially so when they refuse to nominate a candidate that really stands out as a clear alternative, such as the stark contrast between Reagan and Carter.

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My "gut" feeling is that it is pretty much a coin toss about who will win the presidential election right now. Obama isn't very popular, but the republicans ended up with a rather weak candidate that pretty much nobody is very excited about. It isn't very easy to win elections in that sort of situation. The only question in my mind is the "anybody but Obama" vote big enough for Romney to win? My "guess" is no, it will not be, but a lot can happen between now and then.

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This election seems somewhat similar to the 1996 Clinton/Dole election. Clinton had some problems and the Right was really up in arms about him yet the Repubs ended up with a weak looking Dole who couldn't motivate a huge Repub turnout while Clinton's base did turn out in good numbers for him.

A lot could happen in the next five or so weeks plus the debates are coming up, which aren't likely to sway the base much but could motivate enough of the few undecidedes and independents to go ahead and vote for one of them.

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My "gut" feeling is that it is pretty much a coin toss about who will win the presidential election right now. Obama isn't very popular, but the republicans ended up with a rather weak candidate that pretty much nobody is very excited about. It isn't very easy to win elections in that sort of situation. The only question in my mind is the "anybody but Obama" vote big enough for Romney to win? My "guess" is no, it will not be, but a lot can happen between now and then.


IMO it will be a blowout by Obama. Most people don't pay attention to politics and when it comes time to vote they'll take a look at the candidates and vote Obama because he is "cool" while Romney is "square". Also, the programs these people watch: David Letterman, SNL, Jay Leno, Bill Maher, Comedy Central, MTV, NBC, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, the View, etc. are all pro Obama. So they'll get their marching orders from these programs at the last moment in who to vote for.

I also don't know of anyone who is voting for Romney because they like the man or believe he has the answers to turn things around. I do know of a lot of people who love Obama almost to the point of worship. So the whole election will come down to who loves Obama, who hates Obama and the rest of the drones who don't want to be accused of being racist if they don't vote for Obama. Edited by Wilchbla

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IMO it will be a blowout by Obama. Most people don't pay attention to politics and when it comes time to vote they'll take a look at the candidates and vote Obama because he is "cool" while Romney is "square". Also, the programs these people watch: David Letterman, SNL, Jay Leno, Bill Maher, Comedy Central, MTV, NBC, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, CNN, the View, etc. are all pro Obama. So they'll get their marching orders from these programs at the last moment in who to vote for.


I doubt it, the country is to split along ideological lines for Obama to win in a blowout. Particularly given that the economy is still weak in most of the country and the fact he has some problems of his own with his base. He very well might win, but if so it will probably be by the skin of his teeth so to speak.

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Its great to hear the comments about reasoning behind this or that and thoughts on election results.

I was only interested in what it looks like from your perspective in your vicinity. Exact locations not required but it would be nice to know if you are rural, near a small/medium/large town or city? Are you seeing Romney or Obama signs/stickers?

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I live in a small town that is about an hour east of Chicago. There is an active Obama campaign headquarters here, but not one for Romney. With that, though, there are not as many Obama signs/bumper stickers as I would expect. I do see some (and I know the drivers of those vehicles), but I actually see more anti-Obama stickers, and I've seen a few Romney stickers. I think Indiana will go Romney, even though the state went to BO last time. There are too many people who are discouraged, disappointed, and disillusioned about him to vote for him again (likely they will stay home instead of going to the polls).

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Polling has been corrupt since its inception. They were brazenly dishonest during the 1930s-1940s when Roosevelt was in power. And yet, with people's short memories, these same companies are still in power, many of them run by their children.


Interesting how that happens. Could you also provide some observations on local preference similar to Happy's reply?

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I went shopping with my Dad today and there were a lot of Obama signs out now that weren't there two weeks ago. In the small city we shopped in there were Obama signs all over. We live in a small town and so far I've only noticed signs for state politicians, none for president. On the road between our small town and the small city I saw a few Obama signs. I've not seen any Romney signs at all. A couple people still have their Ron Paul signs up.

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I went shopping with my Dad today and there were a lot of Obama signs out now that weren't there two weeks ago. In the small city we shopped in there were Obama signs all over. We live in a small town and so far I've only noticed signs for state politicians, none for president. On the road between our small town and the small city I saw a few Obama signs. I've not seen any Romney signs at all. A couple people still have their Ron Paul signs up.


John, I don't recall but aren't you in western PA?

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In 2008 we lived in West Palm Beach and there was nary an Obama bumper sticker or yard sign until the final weeks and even then they were far outweighed by the Hillary and McCain/Palin signage. Regardless, the county went Democrat if memory serves.

Now we live an hour north in another Democrat stronghold and Obama signage is everywhere. However, they're outnumbered by Allen West's signs! There are over 300 churches (2 IFB) in this county and yet Democrats almost always win.

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My "gut" feeling is that it is pretty much a coin toss about who will win the presidential election right now. Obama isn't very popular, but the republicans ended up with a rather weak candidate that pretty much nobody is very excited about. It isn't very easy to win elections in that sort of situation. The only question in my mind is the "anybody but Obama" vote big enough for Romney to win? My "guess" is no, it will not be, but a lot can happen between now and then.


I agree. I feel that more than likely Mr. Obama will win, that the powers that be in republican party blew it 2 president elections in a row.

Back in Mr. Clinton's days as governor in our state it was difficult to find anyone that would admit to voting for him in our area, even though he pretty much carried every box except for that one time when he lost the governor's mansion. Edited by Jerry80871852

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You, know what folks, this is probably why polls have to estimate (guestimate) the nation's preference. I can't get a straight answer for the questions I've asked. I'm really not interested in your thoughts of who will win or why or why not. I'm interested in evidence you're seeing now from yard signs, bill boards, and bumper stickers in your locale. I thought that I could get a non-deceptive straight forward answer to the questions I've asked above.

HappyChristian and swathdiver are examples of answers that provide useful information.

Those who are concerned about exact location...I'm not interested in your address/town/state although state would be nice if it is a swing state. Your region, i.e., New England, S.E. United States, Midwest, West Coast, etc. is fine.

Edited by 1Tim115

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In my area here in NE Ohio, I haven't seen any signs other than for the locals. However, I haven't been up real close to Cleveland lately either.


Thanks cubfan1969.

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I live in Lynchburg, VA and I say the city is split even though Romney gave the commencement speech at Liberty U. last May. The city is 30% black so the majority of them will vote for Obama no matter what. Plus, I'd say 20 percent of the whites will vote for Obama. Once you get outside of the city I see as many Obama signs as I do Romney. Maybe even more. A lot of this may be chalked up to the fact that nobody is excited about Romney. If anyone votes for the guy it'll be because they hate Obama.

Like I said before, IMO it will be a landslide by Obama. Many people who don't want Obama to win will not go and vote because Romney does nothing for them. Also, the majority of people are nothing but drones when it comes to politics and they will vote for Obama because of what the major media and their favorite entertainers say. I hope they prove me wrong but I doubt it. And to be honest, I really won't be that excited if Romney does win. Maybe just a tad bit of relief.

Edited by Wilchbla

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I live in Lynchburg, VA and I say the city is split even though Romney gave the commencement speech at Liberty U. last May. The city is 30% black so the majority of them will vote for Obama no matter what. Plus, I'd say 20 percent of the whites will vote for Obama. One you get outside of the city I see as many Obama signs as I do Romney. Maybe even more. A lot of this may be chalked up to the fact that nobody is excited about Romney. If anyone votes for the guy it'll be because they hate Obama.


This is just the kind of information I hoped to receive. Thanks.

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Rural NC here.

Not much of anything is out yet in our area. A few yard signs here an there for one or the other. Suspect that'll change in the next couple of weeks or so. But I doubt we'll see the Obama "frenzy" that was stirred up in our local small towns last election.

Polls: Last election, I stopped watching my, then favorite, local news channel. Reporter was almost gloating as she reported the latest poll gave Obama a huge lead. That particular poll was the only one with such numbers. All the other reputable polls had only a small % difference between the candidates. FWIW, learned a long time ago how polls can be swayed one way or another, depending on how the very same questions are asked. Not to mention the demographic being polled with the intent of obtaining desired results.

BTW, that station used to be the home of Jesse Helms when he was the editorial director. (teenager years) There, also, used to be a difference between news and the "editorial page". By last election, "editorial" was the news, whether small town newspaper, local TV news, and beyond.

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Rural NC here.

Not much of anything is out yet in our area. A few yard signs here an there for one or the other. Suspect that'll change in the next couple of weeks or so. But I doubt we'll see the Obama "frenzy" that was stirred up in our local small towns last election.


Thanks this is what I'm looking for.

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