Members rstrats Posted December 5, 2010 Members Share Posted December 5, 2010 (edited) You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show - who knows where the car is so as not to end the game prematurely - opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way? Edited August 10, 2011 by rstrats Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members amblivion Posted December 5, 2010 Members Share Posted December 5, 2010 It would be of advantage to change to curtain #2, at least that is what my college professor told us. I still don't understand the math and such behind it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members John81 Posted December 5, 2010 Members Share Posted December 5, 2010 Advantage or no, I'm stickin' to my guns :makmiday: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members JerryNumbers Posted December 6, 2010 Members Share Posted December 6, 2010 I would never be on such a show, for I would never put my name in the pot to be on such a show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members John81 Posted December 6, 2010 Members Share Posted December 6, 2010 I would never be on such a show, for I would never put my name in the pot to be on such a show. No doubt! Of course they wouldn't want us on their shows. They try to select folks who will put on a good show for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrators HappyChristian Posted December 6, 2010 Administrators Share Posted December 6, 2010 Chill, guys. It's a hypothetical question!! I would have to say it depends on what was behind curtain #1. If it were something that I needed more than a new car I would keep it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Bro Jim Posted December 6, 2010 Members Share Posted December 6, 2010 Stay with #1 and call the bank in case I need a loan to pay the 50% tax in I'm right, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members JerryNumbers Posted December 7, 2010 Members Share Posted December 7, 2010 Chill, guys. It's a hypothetical question!! I would have to say it depends on what was behind curtain #1. If it were something that I needed more than a new car I would keep it. So its a hypothetical question, do you not think that we don't know that. Even being a hypothetical question, it needs a proper follow up, not for us Christains to chill out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members rstrats Posted December 7, 2010 Author Members Share Posted December 7, 2010 John81, re: “Advantage or no, I'm stickin' to my guns” Why would you do that when you would double your chances of winning by switching? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members rstrats Posted December 23, 2010 Author Members Share Posted December 23, 2010 HappyChristian, re: "I would have to say it depends on what was behind curtain #1. If it were something that I needed more than a new car I would keep it." But you don't know if there is anything behind curtain #1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members John81 Posted December 23, 2010 Members Share Posted December 23, 2010 My original decision was reasoned and I'm satisfied with my choice. :th_tiphat: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Salyan Posted June 3, 2011 Moderators Share Posted June 3, 2011 How do you double your chances of winning by switching? Seems to me the odds just got better - instead of a 1 in 3 chance of being right, you've now got a 1 in 2 chance... :thumb: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Annie Posted June 3, 2011 Members Share Posted June 3, 2011 You are a contestant on a game show. There are three curtains. Behind one of the curtains is a new car. You are asked to choose one of the curtains. Lets say that you choose curtain #1. The host of the show opens curtain #3 and there is no car behind it. The host now gives you a choice. You can stay with curtain #1 or you can change your choice to curtain #2. The question now is: would it be to your advantage to stay with curtain #1, or would it be to your advantage to change to curtain #2 or would there be no advantage either way? What would be the advantage of changing to curtain #2? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members rstrats Posted June 3, 2011 Author Members Share Posted June 3, 2011 salyan, re: “How do you double your chances of winning by switching?” Annie, re: “What would be the advantage of changing to curtain #2?” Look at it this way: What if after your initial pick of curtain #1, I told you that you could stay with #1 or switch to BOTH #2 and #3? My guess is that you would switch so that you could look behind both curtains in spite of the fact that you KNOW that at least one of the curtains does not have a car behind it. Lets say that the first curtain that you open is #3 and you find that there is no car behind it. You now get to open curtain # 2, giving you 2 chances. What is the difference if you open curtain #3 or the host opens curtain #3 for you? Either way, you get to look behind curtain # 2. You can also think of it as two areas. Area “A” contains curtain #1 and area “B” contains curtains #2 and #3. There is a 1/3rd chance that the car is in area “A” and a 2/3rds chance that it is in area “B”. Before opening any curtains, you KNOW that at least one of the curtains in area “B” doesn’t have the car behind it. So by opening a curtain in area “B” that doesn’t have a car behind it doesn’t change the 2/3rds odds that area “B” still has a car in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Members Annie Posted June 3, 2011 Members Share Posted June 3, 2011 (edited) salyan, re: “How do you double your chances of winning by switching?” Annie, re: “What would be the advantage of changing to curtain #2?” Look at it this way: What if after your initial pick of curtain #1, I told you that you could stay with #1 or switch to BOTH #2 and #3? My guess is that you would switch so that you could look behind both curtains in spite of the fact that you KNOW that at least one of the curtains does not have a car behind it. Lets say that the first curtain that you open is #3 and you find that there is no car behind it. You now get to open curtain # 2, giving you 2 chances. What is the difference if you open curtain #3 or the host opens curtain #3 for you? Either way, you get to look behind curtain # 2. You can also think of it as two areas. Area “A” contains curtain #1 and area “B” contains curtains #2 and #3. There is a 1/3rd chance that the car is in area “A” and a 2/3rds chance that it is in area “B”. Before opening any curtains, you KNOW that at least one of the curtains in area “B” doesn’t have the car behind it. So by opening a curtain in area “B” that doesn’t have a car behind it doesn’t change the 2/3rds odds that area “B” still has a car in it. Interesting to think about. But wouldn't the host's action then reduce the chances to 50/50, since there are only two viable spots left, one in "A" and one in "B"? "B" no longer has a mathematical advantage over "A" after the empty space is revealed. Similarly, the odds of my drawing a red marble out of a bag which originally contained 2 reds and 1 white, after a red marble has been removed, is not 2/3, but 1/2. Edited June 3, 2011 by Annie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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